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replace to teach law. i wrote the brief against obama with the fact in mind that i have a lot of liberal friends on the cali. my colleagues and the faculty. law professors are quite compulsive but the level of the scholarship. when you read something that you want to have available to your colleagues it has to be overwhelmingly document to and fed noted. and a brief against obama there are 45 pages of footnotes and 235 pages of text. and so when i tell you anything and make a statement about the president tonight and about his record to find in a brief against a llama. and as documentation that takes you executory confine the fact that i cite, the quotations that i put forward in the arguments that i make because i have in mind that when the law school to you reconvenes. i'll leave a copy of the button each of my liberal colleagues mailbox. were actually a wonderful faculty. we stand back-to-back. there are about 50 of the other ones. that's about hair. and we have to abide by just wanted to make sure that it would stand up to the most rigorous analysis. the second part of it is, a lawye
of the state where tampa and orlando are and the miami metro area. .. we see college graduate group that obama lost by about 11 points in 2008. facing the most polls he's physically about even. i think that makes it very difficult for romney to put together a coalition that can take the state. colorado has been fairly close so again obama mabey looks like a fairy or four-point lead on average read a lot of demographic change. you can see the minority eligible voters have gone up by three percentage points and working-class voters in 2008 have gone down by three percentage points. again it doesn't appear that romney is able to turn the demographics tie in his favor. he's not doing much better among the white working-class voters according to the polls i've seen. he's made some progress on the outside margin that obama got 14 points in 2008 among the college graduate voters but he's not making nearly enough voters to take the state and if you break it down geographically the denver metro area is about half the vote in the state but that looks very similar in the polling data as it did in 2008. f
and white college graduates and working class voters voted in 2008. minorities 80/20, obama. white college graduates a four-point deficit, and the right hand column you see how much demographic change we have just in the last four years based on current population survey eligible voters. according to be sedated, we've seen an increase of three points in the share of eligible voters were minority's and a decrease of three points in the share of voters who are white noncollege or working class. that's quite a lot of change in a short period of time. let's just think a bit about what these figures mean, the figures from 2008 and the figures for today. even though it looks like the minority vote usher should go up, let's just say it does not. but let's say that obama gets again the 80% of the minority vote he got in the 2008. let's get nearly loses white college graduates by four-point. it means that you actually be competitive in this race, mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class in this election. that's youth turnout doesn't change
these figures in 2008 mean in the figures for today. let's say obama gets again 80% of the minority vote. let's say it again, to actually be competitive in this race, it would have to go up 18 points in this election. that turnout does not change despite the shift in eligibility. 26% as you can see on this chart. it is now based on a recent poll that came out. i think it is the gold standard for polls. no offense to anyone else in the room who had their own poll. they do it right and they have a 3000 person sample. it is pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic rates. this shows among likely voters that obama is leading by eight a point. if you look the averages, that is high relative to the average. the averages from about four points. probably up by five points, this is within the averages. the overall topline, look at the black black at the margin, 91 points, that seems identical with obama's margin in 2008. seventy-two among hispanics and it is not that far off. also 22 for romney. what it means is that the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority again i
Search Results 0 to 3 of about 4

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